Prediction Comp update

By Ged
May 16 2005

The first quarter of Middx’s 2005 Championship campaign is over. 9 punters are playing for glory and all hope to do better than three 3 computed entries. Ged takes stock on where the runners and riders stand & concludes on current evidence that benchmarks are better predictors than humans.

The following nine punters are playing for glory in the Middlesex 2005 prediction game:

¨      Ged Ladd

¨      Barmy Kev

¨      Janet Davis

¨      Warren Ladd (no relation – I mean how can a nom de plume have relations?)

¨      JC67

¨      David Slater

¨      Patrick Kingsley

¨      Tom Skelton

¨      James Duffy

 

There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks:

¨      1^st Class Averages (with “norms” for players who don’t have 1^st class averages)

¨      Middlesex 2004 averages (with “norms” for players lacking Middlesex 2004 averages)

¨      Poll of Polls (average of the 9 real entries).

 

It will be a bit of a shame if these brilliant contestants cannot even do better than simply picking previous averages as a guide! However, only real people can win a prize, so there’s plenty to play for even if the computer does best!

Ged has computed the standings table after the first quarter of the first class season, i.e.the first four matches. At the end of the season, only those players with 10 innings and/or 10 wickets will impact the results, as explained in the game rules. For the time being, in most cases Ged has used actual “averages” for any player who currently has any sort of average. Chad Keegan’s bowling average of 233 for 1 wicket is the only one that has been excluded.

Name	Bat Score	Bowl Score	Total Score	Ranking
1st class average	157	101	258	2
Middlesex 2004	156	74	230	1
Gedd Ladd	217	87	304	9
Barmy Kev	199	95	294	6
Janet Davis	276	97	373	12
Warren Ladd	167	133	300	8
JC67	195	95	290	5
David Slater	269	100	369	11
Patrick Kingsley	229	87	316	10
Tom Skelton	197	92	289	4
James Duffy	200	79	279	3
Poll of polls	209	85	294	6

At the 4 match stage, the closest predictor is the Middlesex 2004 averages followed closely by 1^st class averages.  In fact, the computer is doing far better than real people.  But  as benchmarks cannot win prizes, the prize currently would go to James Duffy followed closely by Tom Skelton. Ged himself is hardly bathing in glory in the lower reaches of the mid table. David Slater is currently being held of the wooden spoon slot by Janet.  But of course it is still early days and there is plenty of time for these positions to change.

 

If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so. Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you the spreadsheet.

 

Ged will continue periodically to publish the current standings on the contestants, depending on his time available and demand to see the standings. 

 

The next update will probably be after game 7 – i.e. before the 20:20 mid-season recess.