Prediction Game Half-Way Stage Update

The following twelve punters are playing for glory in the Middlesex 2006 prediction game:

¨      Ged Ladd

¨      Kwiklimey

¨      Hippity the Green Bunny

¨      Warren Ladd

¨      Lord of the Chairs

¨      Howard Moon (the Punter formerly known as Crusader)

¨      Akaash Patel

¨      Janet Davis

¨      Alan Edgar

¨      Percival4

¨      Pistol Pete

¨      Barmy Kev

There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks:

¨      1^st Class Averages (with “norms” for players who don’t have 1^st class averages)

¨      Middlesex 2005 averages (with “norms” for players lacking Middlesex 2005 averages)

¨      Poll of Polls (average of the 12 real entries).

It will be a bit of a shame if these brilliant contestants cannot even do better than simply picking previous averages as a guide!  However, only real people can win a prize, so there’s plenty to play for even if the computer does best!

Ged has computed the standings table after the first eight matches (i.e. half) of the first class season.   At the end of the season, only those players with 8 innings and/or 10 wickets will impact the results, as explained in the game rules.  For the time being, Ged has used actual “averages” for any player who currently has 4 complete innings or 4 or more wickets.

At the 8 match stage, the closest predictor is Warren Ladd.  Warren is not related to Ged (nom-de-plumes don’t have relations), nor is his a nom-de-plume; the name link is entirely coincidental.  The 1^st class averages are coming second, followed (a mere hairsbreadth away) by Akaash Patel.  Ged himself is coming a very respectable fourth.    In fact, the computer is doing better than all the real people on batting and bowling.  Strangely, these top positions have hardly moved since our early indication after 3 games.  Hippity is no longer bringing up the rear, as Janet has grabbed the wooden spoon slot.  Intriguingly, the Middlesex 2005 averages are doing almost as badly as the wooden spoon candidates, while the “poll of polls” score is towards the top of the rankings, just below Ged.  But of course it is still reasonably early days and there is plenty of time for these positions to change.

If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so.  Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you the spreadsheet.

Ged will continue periodically to publish the current standings on the contestants, depending on his time available and demand to see the standings. 

The next update will probably be after game 12 – i.e. mid August.