Prediction Game Update After 12 CC Matches

The following twelve punters are playing for glory in the Middlesex 2006 prediction game:

¨      Ged Ladd

¨      Kwiklimey

¨      Hippity the Green Bunny

¨      Warren Ladd

¨      Lord of the Chairs

¨      Howard Moon (the Punter formerly known as Crusader)

¨      Akaash Patel

¨      Janet Davis

¨      Alan Edgar

¨      Percival4

¨      Pistol Pete

¨      Barmy Kev

There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks:

¨      1^st Class Averages (with “norms” for players who don’t have 1^st class averages)

¨      Middlesex 2005 averages (with “norms” for players lacking Middlesex 2005 averages)

¨      Poll of Polls (average of the 12 real entries).

It will be a bit of a shame if these brilliant contestants cannot even do better than simply picking previous averages as a guide!  (In 2005, no human got close to these crude, machine-generated predictions).  However, only real people can win a prize, so there’s plenty to play for even if the computer does best!

Ged has computed the standings table after the first twelve matches (i.e. three-quarters) of the first class season.   At the end of the season, only those players with 8 innings and/or 10 wickets will impact the results, as explained in the game rules.  For the time being, Ged has used actual “averages” for any player who currently has:

¨       6 or more innings (batsmen),

¨       7 or more wickets (bowlers).

At the 12 match stage, the closest predictor is the previous 1^st class averages, which is a little sad really.  The closest human predictor is Warren Ladd.  Warren is not related to Ged (nom-de-plumes don’t have relations), nor is his a nom-de-plume; the name link is entirely coincidental.  Ged himself is coming a very respectable third, followed (a mere hairsbreadth away) by Akaash Patel.  Strangely, these top positions have hardly moved since our early indication after 3 games.  Hippity and Janet are vying for the wooden spoon slot, with Barmy Kev not too far ahead of those two.  Intriguingly, the Middlesex 2005 averages are in the lower half of the table (9^th), while the “poll of polls” score is towards the top of the rankings (6^th), just below Percival 4.  But of course, there is plenty of time for these positions to change.

If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so.  Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you the spreadsheet.

At the end of the season, when I publish the final results, I’m thinking this year of pulling out some of the best and worst individual predictions of the season, as an additional entertainment for the concluding article.