Middlesex Prediction Game 2006 Final Results

The following twelve punters played for glory in the Middlesex 2006 prediction game:

 

¨      Ged Ladd

¨      Kwiklimey

¨      Hippity the Green Bunny

¨      Warren Ladd

¨      Lord of the Chairs

¨      Howard Moon (the Punter formerly known as Crusader)

¨      Akaash Patel

¨      Janet Davis

¨      Alan Edgar

¨      Percival4

¨      Pistol Pete

¨      Barmy Kev

 

There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks:

¨      1^st Class Averages (with “norms” for players who don’t have 1^st class averages)

¨      Middlesex 2005 averages (with “norms” for players lacking Middlesex 2005 averages)

¨      Poll of Polls (average of the 12 real entries).

 

It will be a bit of a shame if these brilliant contestants cannot even do better than simply picking previous averages as a guide!  (In 2005, no human got close to these crude, machine-generated predictions).  However, only real people can win a prize, so there’s plenty to play for even if the computer does best!

 

Ged has computed the final standings table.  Only those players with 8 innings and/or 10 wickets will impact the results, as explained in the game rules. 

 

The closest predictor is the previous 1^st class averages, which is a little sad really, especially when you consider how badly Middlesex did.  The closest human predictor and prize winner is Warren Ladd.  Warren is not related to Ged (nom-de-plumes don’t have relations), nor is his a nom-de-plume; the name link is entirely coincidental.  Ged himself was pipped at the post by Warren, a mere point separating them. 

 

Note that Warren’s pessimism regarding the bowlers has paid dividends for him – Ged got the closest match for batting averages but Warren was closest on bowlers by a long chalk.  Of course, Middlesex’s miserable bowling this year meant that only six bowlers went into the final results as only six achieved ten or more wickets.

 

Many congratulations to Warren.  Your prize, a small “book”, is on its way to you, Warren, which will hopefully help to erase the memory of a dreadful season.

 

Akaash Patel is also worthy of praise, coming a very respectable “third placed human”.    Strangely, the top positions have hardly moved since our early indication after 3 games. 

 

Janet came a very solid last this time, claiming the wooden spoon slot for herself.  Hippity and Barmy Kev fought it out for the next bottom slot, with Hippity doing marginally worse than Kev.

 

A Few Hot and Not-So-Hot Picks

 

Chris Peploe was the worst-scoring prediction fro most people – his bowling average of 79 being beyond most people’s wildest nightmares.  Warren’s prediction that Peploe would average 42 with the ball helped his cause a lot – that was the highest prediction for that average, despite a first class average of 48 and a 2005 average of 50.  Both Hippity and Janet predicted an average of 35 for Peploe, yielding the highest individual difference of 44. 

 

Batting and bowling combined, Peploe generated 636 unwanted points – far and away the highest.  Almost double that of the next player, Johann Louw (332 points).  Eoin Morgan’s tally of 325 is also noteworthy as it is batting only.

 

Many people got close to Silverwood’s real averages of 15 (bat) and 25 (ball) – those who were pessimistic about that signing suffered.  A mere 125 points across the board tells you that the man performed.

 

But the steady-Eddie award goes to Paul Weekes, who was so predictable he only garnered 45 points across the whole lot of us.

 

Still Want More Information?

 

If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so.  Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you the spreadsheet. 

 

 

And so to next year

 

It’s been fun, folks.  Same again next year?