Prediction Comp. update

By Ged
April 26 2005

The Middx 2005 prediction competition is now closed. There are 9 punters playing for glory. Ged will also track 3 computed entries by way of a benchmark. Ged assesses the runners and riders. He also publishes the standings after one match (a rather dodgy set of stats but it gets things started).

The competition has now gone live.  The entries have been received and there are nine punters playing for glory:

 

Gedd Ladd - This contestant needs no introduction

 

Barmy Kev - Nor this one

 

Janet Davis - Why am I bothering to comment on these contestants?

 

Warren Ladd (NR) - NR stands for “no relation”.  (I mean, how could a nom de plume have a relation?)  Seriously, this is a real contestant.  Welcome.

 

JC67 - Another familiar name (or should I say number) to us all.

 

David Slater - Who he? (Admin input - some lunatic who lowers the tone)

 

Patrick Kingsley - Welcome, Patrick. Good luck

 

Tom Skelton - Hello Tom. You made the deadline

 

James Duffy - Well, he agonised on the MTWD board about his entry but  jamesd eventually got his in on time.

 

It’s a shame that none of the true Middlesex pessimists had a go, because most of the entries appear to Ged to err on the optimistic (his own entry included).  There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks – the first two of these should be reasonably realistic:

 

1st class average - Based on the players’ lifetime 1^st class averages.  Players that don’t yet have sufficient 1^st class experience have standardised predictions: batsman 40/60, all-rounder 30/30, bowler 10/25.

 

Middlesex 2004 - Based on the players’ average in the 2004 season for Middlesex.  Those who did not play for Middlesex 2004 have standardised predictions: batsman 40/60, all-rounder 30/30, bowler 10/25.

 

Poll of polls - The nine real entries are averaged into a “poll of polls” to see if the combined brains of the contestants do better, worse or about the same as the individual contestants

 

Ged has computed the standings table after one match (based on actual “averages” for any player who currently has any sort of average.

 

Name	Bat Score	Bowl Score	Total Score	Ranking
1st class average	319	79	398	5
Middlesex 2004	318	40	358	1
Gedd Ladd	327	72	399	6
Barmy Kev	307	83	390	4
Janet Davis	381	82	463	12
Warren Ladd	294	80	374	2
JC67	329	84	412	9
David Slater	370	80	450	11
Patrick Kingsley	348	71	419	10
Tom Skelton	318	86	404	7
James Duffy	307	60	375	3
Poll of polls	330	77	407	8

So far, the closest predictor is the Middlesex 2004 averages, but as benchmarks cannot win prizes, the prize currently would go to Warren Ladd (NR).  James D is running a close 2^nd, Ged himself is about mid table, David is currently being held of the wooden spoon slot by Janet.  But of course it is early days, so I wouldn’t draw too many conclusions form these results.

Word on the street is that Mark Cohen is planning on starting a derivative betting market on the result of this game.  That might be complex enough for him.  Watch that space.

 

If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so.  Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you the spreadsheet.

 

Ged will periodically publish some current standings on the contestants, depending on his time available and demand to see the standings.  For those who like this sort of thing, it should be a bit of fun.  And for those who don’t like this sort of thing – you don’t have to watch.

 

Good luck everyone.