Prediction Competition update

By Ged
July 14 2005

The first half of Middx’s 2005 County Championship campaign is over. 8 of the 16 matches have been played, which is a good time to take stock. 9 punters are playing for glory and all hope to do better than three computed, benchmark entries. Ged reflects on the changing pattern of placings...

...but still on the whole observes that benchmarks are better predictors than humans.

 

The following nine punters are playing for glory in the Middlesex 2005 prediction game:

¨      Ged Ladd

¨      Barmy Kev

¨      Janet Davis

¨      Warren Ladd (no relation – I mean how can a nom de plume have relations?)

¨      JC67

¨      David Slater

¨      Patrick Kingsley

¨      Tom Skelton

¨      James Duffy

 

There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks:

¨      1^st Class Averages (with “norms” for players who don’t have 1^st class averages)

¨      Middlesex 2004 averages (with “norms” for players lacking Middlesex 2004 averages)

¨      Poll of Polls (average of the 9 real entries).

 

At the end of the first quarter, Ged observed that picking previous averages was a better guide than the “wisdom” of the competing humans! However, only real people can win a prize, so there’s plenty to play for even if the computer does best! If you recall, Ged has promised a small, cricket-related prize.

 

Ged has now recomputed the standings table after half of  the first class season, i.e.the first eight of 16 matches. At the end of the season, only those players with 10 innings and/or 10 wickets will impact the results, as explained in the game rules. For the time being, in most cases Ged has used actual “averages” for any player who currently has any sort of average. Chad Keegan’s bowling average of 233 for 1 wicket is the only one that has been excluded.

 

Name	Bat Score	Bowl Score	Total Score	Ranking
1st class average	146	107	253	2
Middlesex 2004	149	70	219	1
Gedd Ladd	181	83	264	6
Barmy Kev	181	95	276	8
Janet Davis	250	113	363	12
Warren Ladd	202	143	345	10
JC67	167	88	255	3
David Slater	257	91	348	11
Patrick Kingsley	209	87	296	9
Tom Skelton	179	96	275	7
James Duffy	184	79	263	5
Poll of polls	172	84	256	4

 

At the 4 match stage, the computer was doing far better than all the real people.  Even now after 8 matches the Middlesex 2004 average is far and away the best predictor.  But now we see the human JC67 (albeit with a name that sounds like it might be computer-generated) doing almost as well as the 1^st class average and standing in poll position for the prize.  James Duffy continues to make a strong challenge – unfeasibly Ged himself is now close behind James. 

 

David Slater is still being held of the wooden spoon slot by Janet, with Warren Ladd not too far ahead of David.  But it is still early days and there is still plenty of time for the positions to change.  Also, the exclusion the end of the season of those batsmen and bowlers with insufficient runs or wickets to qualify might change the rankings in interesting ways.  With only 41 points (14%) separating JC67 from 9^th place Patrick Kingsley, there’s plenty still to play for – bit like the CC First Division this year.

 

If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so.  Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you the spreadsheet.

 

The next update will probably be after game 12 depending on Ged’s work schedule, mood etc