Prediction Game Standings After Three Matches

Three matches of Middlesex’s 2006 County Championship campaign are complete and it’s not been clever so far.   But regardless of the Middlesex results, 12 punters are playing for predictive glory and all hope to do better than three 3 computed, benchmark entries.  Ged takes stock on where the runners and riders stand and concludes on current evidence that historic 1^st class averages are better predictors than humans.  

The following twelve punters are playing for glory in the Middlesex 2006 prediction game:

¨      Ged Ladd

¨      Kwiklimey

¨      Hippity the Green Bunny

¨      Warren Ladd

¨      Lord of the Chairs

¨      Howard Moon (the Punter formerly known as Crusader)

¨      Akaash Patel

¨      Janet Davis

¨      Alan Edgar

¨      Percival4

¨      Pistol Pete

¨      Barmy Kev

There are also three computed entries, by way of benchmarks:

¨      1^st Class Averages (with “norms” for players who don’t have 1^st class averages)

¨      Middlesex 2005 averages (with “norms” for players lacking Middlesex 2005 averages)

¨      Poll of Polls (average of the 12 real entries).

It will be a bit of a shame if these brilliant contestants cannot even do better than simply picking previous averages as a guide!  However, only real people can win a prize, so there’s plenty to play for even if the computer does best!

Ged has computed the standings table after the first three matches of the first class season.   At the end of the season, only those players with 8 innings and/or 10 wickets will impact the results, as explained in the game rules.  For the time being, Ged has used actual “averages” for any player who currently has any sort of average. Ged has defined this as “more than one innings and/or more than one wicket”.

At the 3 match stage, the closest predictor is the 1^st class averages.  In fact, the computer is doing better than all the real people on batting and bowling.  But, as benchmarks cannot win prizes, the prize currently would go to Warren Ladd (no relation), followed very closely indeed by Akaash Patel.  Ged himself is respectably there in the upper middle order.  Pistol Pete and Janet are currently being held off the wooden spoon slot by Hippity.  But of course it is still early days and there is plenty of time for these positions to change.

If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet model that includes all the predictions and the formulae for computing the winners, you are very welcome to do so.  Please e-mail Ged at gedladd@hotmail.co.uk and he’ll e-mail you the spreadsheet.

Ged will continue periodically to publish the current standings on the contestants, depending on his time available and demand to see the standings. 

The next update will probably be after game 8 – i.e. before the 20:20 mid-season recess.