Book extract from The Ashes, 1945-2005, A Complete Record

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, kindly observe the following beautiful extract from this informative publication, which would make a good addition to your book shelf. I can offload copies to any interested party for a mere eight pounds [including delivery costs], although this item actually retails at £9.99.

                         WHO GIVES A TOSS?
         Who gives a toss about the toss of a coin at the start of the proceedings? Just how crucial is the flip of the coin in determining the subsequent proceedings? Let’s take a look at the Ashes test matches from 1945 to 2005 then. Well, the first obvious statistic to record is that Australia have won 85 tosses, while the England captains have only guessed correctly on 78 occasions, thereby reinforcing the Australian belief that the English are useless tossers. However, what is more noteworthy is the conversion rate of calling the coin correctly and then winning the ensuing test. Here one will find that the apparent advantage of choosing either to bat or field first isn’t all it is cracked up to be, or at least if it is of supreme importance, then the team that decides whether or not to bowl first hasn’t always made a sound judgement. Australia, for example, have won only 34 of their test matches after enjoying the luxury of choice at the outset. This represents only a forty per cent chance that an Australian success at the toss will be followed by triumph in the match itself. England cricket fans, grasping at all the comfort that they can muster, can thus console themselves that should Australia win the toss, post-war history has indicated that there is a 60% chance that they will not then win the match itself. However, the picture then looks bleak for England when one observes their success at converting successes at the toss into triumph in the ensuing test match. Perversely, England have won only 19 of the 78 Ashes test matches between 1945 and 2005 when their captain correctly envisaged how the coin would be flipped. This means that there is a 75 per cent likelihood that England will not actually derive any advantage from the coin ritual! In summary, I can only conclude that anyone who jumps to conclusions that a winning toss will lead to a winning test, all I can state from the evidence presented to me is that all Ashes observers need not get too excited about this flipping coin!